Netherlands: General Election, November 2023

On 22 November, the Netherlands went to the polls for a snap general election which was called after the collapse of the outgoing coalition in July 2023. With 26 parties contesting the election, the campaign period saw tensions rise over issues such as immigration, a brand-new party among the front-runners, and the possibility of the first female Prime Minister of the Netherlands. Voting resulted in a victory for the far-right, anti-EU Party for Freedom, who now have the opportunity to form a governing coalition, having won 37 of the 150 seats available.

This Just the Facts looks at the Dutch parliamentary system, the main campaign issues, and the results of the general election.

Kingdom of the Netherlands’ Parliamentary System

The Netherlands, meaning “low countries” has been a bicameral parliamentary monarchy since 1848. At the Congress of Vienna in 1815, as part of the re-arrangement of Europe following the end of the Napoleonic Wars (1801 – 1815), William I (1772 – 1843) became king of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in 1815. In response to the Revolutions of 1848, his son William II (1792 – 1849) instituted a more liberal regime that established the country as a parliamentary democracy.

Today, it is the monarch who is the official head of state of the Netherlands. Since April 2013, the head of the Dutch royal family has been King Willem-Alexander (born 1967). The Prime Minister is the head of government and is elected to the Second Chamber of the States General (Tweede Kamer der Staten-Generaal), also known as the House of Representatives. Together, with the First Chamber of the States General (Eerste Kamer der Staten-Generaal), also known as the Senate, they form the Estates General (Staten-Generaal).

The House of Representatives is composed of 150 deputies, who are elected every four years through open list proportional representation. This means that seats are distributed proportionally to the percentage of the vote received by a party With no minimum requirement, many parties contest the elections. A total of 26 parties ran in this election.

The 75 senators of the Senate are elected every four years by the members of the States-Provincial (Provinciale Staten) of the country’s twelve provinces and, since 2019, by electoral colleges elected in the Caribbean Netherlands. The latter consists of the islands of Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba.

If a party is unable to secure 50% of the vote at a general election, which no party has managed to do since 1900, a coalition government may be formed to satisfy the 76-seat majority requirement. The House of Representatives will appoint a “scout” for each political party, to assess the election results and speak with party leaders about possible coalitions.

After this, an informateur is appointed to lead discussions between parties, and a formateur, the likely new Prime Minister and typically the leader of the largest party, concludes the negotiation process. It is usually several months before the government is fully formed. After the last general election in March 2021, a new cabinet did not take office until January 2022.

Before the 2023 general election, the government was led by Mark Rutte (born 1967), who had been  Prime Minister since October 2010, having been elected to the position four times. He was leader of the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) from May 2006 until July 2023. He announced his government’s resignation in July 2023 after his coalition government, which included Democrats 66, Christian Democratic Appeal, and the Christian Union, failed to agree on how to handle increasing migration.

2023 Campaign Issues

Living Standards

The price of an average home in the Netherlands is now above €400,000, with an estimate that there are nine times as many people in the Netherlands looking to buy homes as there are homes for sale. The newly formed centre-right party New Social Contract, led by former Christian Democrat Pieter Omtzigt, made headway in the polls with a campaign promise of improving socio-economic security. The party are pro-home ownership and promised to deliver 30% social housing in each municipality, along with an extension of the basic insurance package to include dental. Omtzigt played a leading role in exposing a welfare scandal in 2019, which saw more than 20,000 families wrongly labelled as fraudsters and deprived of child-benefit payments.

Rising prices within the retail and energy sector had all leading parties in agreement that there is a cost-of-living crisis that the government must address.

Immigration

A lack of affordable housing/accommodation provided additional fuel for another key campaign issue – immigration. The out-going coalition government fell apart in a dispute over migration. Following this, many parties pledged to make changes to the number of asylum seekers, foreign labourers, and overseas students granted access to the country. Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius, who replaced out-going Prime Minister Mark Rutte as leader of the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), promised to make the Netherlands a less attractive location. The party wants an asylum system which differentiates between those fleeing persecution and those fleeing war, with the latter having fewer rights regarding family reunification.

New Social Contract would set a cap of 50,000 migrants, including asylum seekers, labourers, and overseas students, being allowed in the country every year. This policy has been sharply criticized by Dutch universities who say it will have a negative impact on attracting top-talent. The far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) previously called for a ban on Muslim immigration to the Netherlands.

Climate Change

Voters motivated by the climate crisis are pushing to accelerate investment in green infrastructure, and end subsidies that benefit fossil fuel companies. For Frans Timmermans, who left his job as EU climate commissioner to lead a joint campaign with the Labour and Green Parties, this has created the context to call for a new top-rate of income tax and a 65% reduction in Dutch greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. Ahead of the election, Timmermans was the only left-wing candidate with a high position in the polls.

Results of the 2023 General Election

Despite contrary predictions, the election results saw a victory for the far-right, anti-EU, anti-Islam leader of the Party for Freedom, Geert Wilders. After leading a campaign promising to close borders and ‘de-Islamise’ the Netherlands, Geert Wilders’ party won 37 seats. Frans Timmermans’ Green/Labour coalition was the second-largest party, winning 25 seats, while out-going Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s VVD lost 10 seats bringing their total to 24. Despite only forming in August, newcomers NSC won 20 seats.

Given that no party won an outright majority, it will be necessary to form a coalition. At 271 days for the negotiations after the 2021 elections, the Dutch are no strangers to months of coalition talks. For Geert Wilders, the task may be more difficult with some moderate parties refusing outright to enter coalition negotiations, while others such as NSC are refusing until threats to exit the EU or change the clauses of the Dutch constitutions which forbid religious discrimination are dropped. Should Wilders fail to form a coalition, centrist parties such as VVD may have a chance to form a moderate government. Negotiations are not off to a good start, with PVV Senator Gom van Strien resigning from his role as ‘scout’ for possible coalitions (27 November), just days after his appointment by Geert Wilders. The resignation comes amidst claims of fraud and bribery.

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