Just the Facts | German State Elections in September 2026

Around 7.4 million Germans went to the polls in September to vote in elections in three of Germany’s sixteen federal states: Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin. The far-right AfD emerged as the largest party in the former two states, while the far-left Die Linke secured the most seats in the capital. Despite the AfD’s growing strength, left-wing governments are likely to take over in two of the three states. This Just the Facts provides an overview of the three elections, the state of coalition negotiations, and the implications of a strengthened far-right in Germany.

Saxony-Anhalt

Population: 2.1 million

Voter turnout: 77.8%

Result: AfD won 44% of the vote, while incumbent CDU fell to 17%.

The eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt went to the polls on 6 September. As anticipated, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) won a clear victory, taking 43.8% of the vote. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) fell to 17.2% (from 37.1% in the 2021 election), while the Social Democrats (SPD) edged up to 9.3% (from 8.4%). Despite its record result, the AfD fell three seats short of a majority (39 of 83), meaning lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund is not guaranteed to become the state premier. The CDU, SPD and Greens have insufficient combined votes for a majority (31 of 83); even with Die Linke, which is characterised as far-left, they would only reach 39 seats – on par with the AfD.

The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) – which renamed itself the Alliance for Social Justice and Economic Reason on 1 October 2026 (but will retain the same acronym) – narrowly cleared the 5% threshold and emerged as the unlikely kingmaker. The BSW, established by former member of The Left party Sahra Wagenknecht in January 2024, is positioned towards the left economically and towards the right culturally. Like the AfD, it favours friendlier relations with Russia, strict limitations on migration and holds similar Eurosceptic views.

With the CDU, SPD, Greens and Left maintaining a cordon sanitaire, or so-called firewall, against the AfD, and the CDU continuing to refuse cooperation with the Left, forming a coalition by 6 October will be challenging. Having stated in the run-up to the election that the AfD would only enter government with a clear majority, Siegmund changed tack after the election, instead favouring a reliable majority – for example, with the BSW.

The SPD had invited the CDU, Greens, Left and BSW to talks about a possible government without the AfD on 29 September. The CDU refused the invite, citing a decision by the party’s regional branch to enter parliament as opposition. The BSW criticised the fact that the AfD weren’t invited to the coalition talks. However, the BSW has ruled out a coalition with the AfD led by Ulrich Siegmund; ideally, it would like a non-partisan figure to lead a minority government and work with shifting majorities in the state parliament.

AfD – a democratic threat

The AfD, whose Saxony-Anhalt branch is classified as “right-wing extremist”, is overtly anti-euro, advocates ‘re-migration’ and wants school curricula to downplay Germany’s Nazi past. It is the largest opposition party in the national parliament (Bundestag) but has never led a regional government. At EU level, it is one of the drivers of the ‘Europe of Sovereign Nations’ group in the European Parliament.

Exit polls in Saxony-Anhalt highlighted voters’ dissatisfaction with cost of living, energy prices and perceptions of broken promises by the government to revive the economy. Siegmund’s popularity and perceptions of the party’s competence were also key factors for the AfD’s success. The party mobilised 170,000 previously non-voters, raising turnout to 77.8%, and drew more support from men than women (50% compared to 39%) across all age groups.  

The AfD’s success in Saxony-Anhalt marks the second time the party placed first in a state election in Germany, following the Thuringian state election in 2024, when it won a third of the votes. That election resulted in a CDU-SPD-BSW government, with some support from the Left. If the AfD were to take power in Saxony-Anhalt, it would mark a first in Germany.

Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania

Population: 1.6 million

Voter turnout: 78.1%

Result: AfD won 38% of the vote, closely followed by SPD with just over 35%; CDU fell below 5% threshold for the first time ever.

The record victory for the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt was mirrored on 20 September in the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) on the Baltic coast, where the far-right party secured 38.2% of the vote – more than double its share in the last election in 2021 (16.7%). However, with 32 seats, the AfD remains below the minimum 36 seats required for a majority. The incumbent SPD followed closely with 35.5%, while the CDU failed to reach the minimum 5% threshold required to enter Parliament, marking the worst ever result for the CDU in a state election.

The Greens won 5.7% and the Left (Die Linke) 6.5% of the vote. The SPD and Left, which have governed together in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania since 2021, would need the support of the Greens to form a government: the three parties combined would have a majority of 39 seats.

Exit polls revealed issues such as social security, immigration and perceptions of public safety as key factors for an AfD vote. 96% of AfD voters view the party’s tougher stance on migration compared to other parties favourably.

Given the strong SPD result and the fact that other parties have ruled out working with the AfD, the far-right party is unlikely to take power in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania but it is likely to become the only opposition party. Coalition talks between the SPD and the Left Party commenced on 28 September, led by incumbent premier Manuela Schwesig. They were joined by the Greens on 29 September. Coalition talks are expected to conclude by mid-November 2026.

Berlin

Population: 3.7 million

Voter turnout: 74.2%

Result: Far-left party Die Linke won almost 26% of the vote, followed by CDU with 19% and AfD with 16%.

The far-left Die Linke (the Left Party) won an historic result in the city-state election of Berlin on 20 September, securing 25.7% of the vote – double the party’s share in the previous election. This will likely make the party’s lead candidate, Elif Eralp, Berlin’s first ever mayor from the Left Party, which grew out of the former East German communist party following the reunification of Germany in 1990. The CDU finished in second place with 18.8% of the vote, while the far-right populist AfD also increased their vote share, finishing in third with 16.3%. For the first time, 16- and 17-year-olds could vote in the state election in Berlin, with 43% of those under the age of 25 voting for Die Linke. A clear majority (54%) of young women also voted for the Left Party.

Eralp – widely likened to New York’s Mayor Zohran Mamdani – and Die Linke ran a campaign focused on tackling Berlin’s unaffordable rents and pushed to nationalise housing. The Munich-born daughter of Turkish immigrants, Eralp has vowed to be “a mayor for all Berliners”.

As in Saxony-Anhalt, the CDU is opposed to any coalition with the Left in Berlin. However, both the SPD and Greens have signalled willingness to cooperate with the far-left party. A coalition of the three parties would reach 95 seats, comfortably above the minimum threshold of 80 seats needed for a majority. However, Eralp’s mayorship is not yet guaranteed: she and her party face accusations of failing to tackle antisemitism internally as well as charges that the Left Party has tolerated support from criminal gangs. The SPD and Greens have called for urgent clarification on these alleged connections before they agree to cooperate with Die Linke. The Left’s leadership rejects accusations of systematic antisemitism, saying it is against all forms of “group-focused hostility”, including antisemitism, racism and sexism.

AfD – not just an eastern German issue

While much of the commentary on the AfD’s rise has focused on its growing support in eastern Germany, the party has long been a nationwide phenomenon. It is currently polling at 27-28% nationally, with support of around 20% in the western states of Bavaria, Hesse and Baden-Württemberg – approximately the level recorded in eastern German states in 2021. The AfD already made significant gains in the western states of Rhineland-Palatinate and Baden-Württemberg earlier this year, more than doubling its share of votes from the 2021 elections in both states.

Against this backdrop, some commentators have warned that the recent election results should be taken just as seriously in western Germany, where the AfD’s growing appeal suggests that the region is not immune to the political trends seen in the east – an important realisation ahead of elections in five western German states in 2027.

The AfD has particularly demonstrated success in peripheral regions or those in decline, for example due to deindustrialisation. An analysis at national level shows that the AfD tends to perform particularly well among middle-aged groups in both western and eastern Germany. However, increased support among young men is a key contributing factor to its recent electoral successes – particularly those in rural areas (36%) and those without a school leaving certificate (44%). The party also performs above average among people who describe their economic situation as “less good” or “poor”.

Implications for the German government and the EU

The AfD’s newfound electoral momentum, combined with widespread dissatisfaction with the national government, has intensified pressure on Chancellor Merz and called into question the government’s political stability. The AfD’s success in Saxony-Anhalt triggered stark reactions from the national government: Thorsten Frei, leader of the CDU/CSU group in the Bundestag, described the result as a “turning point for our country” and urged conservatives to reflect on why they were failing to connect with voters. Meanwhile, SPD co-leader Lars Klingbeil called the result a “signal to Berlin” that should prompt the federal government to reassess its policies. Chancellor Merz himself acknowledged that the result in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where his party fell below the 5% threshold, was a “disaster”. Despite mounting internal party tensions and scrutiny of his leadership, he has sought to maintain his position by promising economic reforms.

The AfD’s most recent successes reflect deeper structural challenges than the immediate shortcomings of the current federal coalition, however. As the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) argues, the AfD’s strength is a symptom rather than a cause of Germany’s wider political and economic malaise. The party has been part of German politics for more than a decade – a time when governing coalitions made repeated announcements of reforms that failed to come to fruition. The prospect of an AfD state premier or a Left mayor reflects the mainstream centrist parties’ failure to present a convincing vision for Germany’s economic, political and social future.

The three latest state elections carry significant implications for the EU. As the EU’s largest member state, both in terms of its population and economy, political paralysis and fragmentation in Germany could risk undermining the Union’s ambitions to become more competitive and autonomous. A potentially weakened federal government, facing pressure domestically from an emboldened AfD, could find its room for compromise increasingly constrained on critical policy issues such as the next long-term EU budget, climate change and migration. As the ECFR warns, “a German crisis is a European crisis”.

Finally, the AfD’s electoral successes in all three German states, even if the party ultimately will not control these regional governments, could embolden radical-right and sovereigntist actors elsewhere in Europe. This trend is particularly consequential ahead of major elections in France, Spain, Poland and Italy in 2027, where the growing influence of right-wing parties could further complicate efforts to advance common EU priorities.

At the same time, while the AfD’s increasing popularity is a notable feature of the three elections, the significance of left-wing governments taking office in two of the three states – Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania – should not be overlooked, at a time when left-wing governments are becoming less common in Europe.