Just the Facts | Portugal, Poland and Romania: Three Key EU Elections May 2025

Portugal Parliamentary 

Election lowdown 

Portugal is a semi-Presidential Republic and a parliamentary democracy. The Assembly of the Republic (AR), is the Parliament of Portugal. The Assembly has a four-year mandate and is made up of 230 members. Members are elected using the proportional representation system. Two political parties have alternated power since the end of Portugal’s dictatorship 50 years ago: the centre-left Socialist Party (PS), and the centre-right Social Democratic Party (PSD). For this parliamentary election, similar to  the March 2024 elections, the PSD campaigned with a coalition of conservative parties, under the Democratic Alliance (AD) party.  To read more about some of the main political parties in Portugal, read our previous Just the Facts from March 2024.  

On 19 May, almost six million voters headed to the polls in Portugal for what is the country’s third snap election in as many years. Multiple political scandals in recent years have reinforced public perceptions of widespread corruption in Portuguese politics.  

The previous snap election of March 2024 was called after the forced resignation of António Costa, the then Socialist Prime Minister and current President of the European Council on account of a judicial investigation regarding corruption. In a turn towards the right, AD, led by Luís Montenegro, claimed a narrow election win, while the far-right party Chega quadrupled its number of seats. 

The snap election of 19 May came about after the Portuguese government, in place less than a year, collapsed in March 2025, following a no-confidence vote called by Prime Minister Montenegro. The dissolution was a result of the so-called “Spinumviva scandal”, where Montenegro had failed to divest his stake in a data protection legal consultancy called Spinumviva, which he founded in 2021. 

Sunday’s result has delivered yet another minority government which will be headed up once again by incumbent ruling party, AD, with its leader Montenegro continuing as prime minister. The centre-right AD won a total of 89 seats out of the 230-seat National Assembly, failing to secure a parliamentary majority (116 seats). This means AD will likely require cooperation and support from the centre-left which may prove difficult following the no-confidence vote in Montenegro which led to the snap election. It could also seek support from smaller parties such as Liberal Initiative (IL), which have also won a number of seats.  

The elections saw a further surge in support for the far-right party Chega (meaning “Enough”), led by lawyer and former soccer pundit, André Ventura who claimed the results were a “great victory”. The six-year-old party increased their support by 4.5 percentage points since the last elections, winning an unprecedented 58 seats: the same number as the Socialist’s Party (PS). In contrast, PS experienced its worst result since 1987 resulting in the leader, Pedro Nuno Santos, stepping down. 

With no leading party winning a majority, Chega is once again poised to play kingmaker. However, AD’s Montenegro has repeatedly stated that his party would not work with the ultranationalist group. That being said, some members of his party, such as former PM Pedro Passos Coelho, for example, have shown more openness towards coming to “an understanding” with Chega.  

Campaign issues 

Similar to the March 2024 snap elections, corruption, migration, housing and the cost of living all featured as concerns among voters during this campaign. Disinformation also played a role in exacerbating public anxieties and pushing polarising narratives, in particular on social media platforms. EU Disinfo Lab reported as recently as May 2025 on disinformation examples such as “false claims about immigrants receiving more attention than matters about Portuguese pensioners or even conspiracy theories and manipulated data on corruption”. 

Chega ran its campaign on anti-migration platform, with leader Ventura often incorrectly conflating the increase in migration in Portugal over the last seven years with crime rates and a deepening housing crisis.  

House prices and rents have been soaring for the past 10 years in Portugal, partly due to foreign investment and the increased demand by people with higher purchasing power from abroad. In combination with this, low wages are a major concern. The minimum wage is approximately €1,000 a month in Portugal, with one of the lowest purchasing power standards in Western Europe. 

Poland Presidential 

Poland is a parliamentary republic, and while the role of president is mainly a ceremonial one, the president wields crucial influence given their power to veto parliamentary bills. Current Polish Prime Minister and leader of the Civic Platform party, Donald Tusk, has faced significant challenges since being elected in 2023 precisely because of this veto power – clashing with outgoing President Andrzej Duda who, as a close ally of the opposition PiS party, has vetoed much of Tusk’s parliamentary agenda. 

On 18 May, a record-breaking 67.31% of Polish voters headed to the polls for the first round of the presidential elections. Rafał Trzaskowski, the centrist mayor of Warsaw and the candidate endorsed by Prime Minister Tusk, won narrowly with 31.4%, ahead of Karol Nawrocki on 29.5%, who was supported by the populist right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party. The race is certainly not over and the deciding round between the two frontrunners will take place on 1 June.  

One of the main takeaways of this first round of the election is the strength of the collective right in Poland. There were as many as four right-wing candidates who collectively garnered support, representing 54% of the electorate’s vote. This means that Nawrocki has a considerable pool of voters to tap into in the second round. In third place, was the far-right candidate, Sławomir Mentzen, who earned 14.8% of the vote, and has positioned himself as equally opposed to both Trzaskowski and Nawrocki. His transfer of votes will be crucial in deciding the final result. 

Campaign issues 

Before Tusk’s coalition, PiS was in power during the period 2015 to 2023. During its tenure in 2018, the PiS party began to change the Polish judiciary, and set up a unit that gave a special Chamber of the Supreme Court the prerogative over electoral verification. EU courts have ruled the unit to be a violation of the rule of law and separation of powers. While Tusk’s parliament have attempted to reverse the reforms, outgoing President Duda has blocked these attempts. 

Much like in Portugal and Romania, Poland’s May election was characterised by deep polarisation, bringing with it inflammatory messaging around social issues. Piotr Buras, head of the Warsaw office of the European Council on Foreign Relations has said that the deciding round will be a “confrontation of two visions of Poland: pro-EU, liberal and progressive versus nationalist, Trumpist and conservative”. 

Ukraine was a significant campaign issue in the Polish elections, with nearly one million Ukrainian refugees remaining in Poland. The tone towards Ukrainian has shifted towards one of hostility as of late with many war refuges complaining of abuse in Poland. Nawrocki’s campaign highlighted a “Poland first” narrative, capitalising on this shift. Additionally, Trzaskowski also adjusted certain policies and rhetoric to adapt to this shift, proposing in January of this year that only Ukrainian refugees who “work, live and pay taxes” in Poland be granted access to the “800+” child benefit.  

Romania Presidential 

Annulled election 

Romania is a semi-presidential republic. The Prime Minister acts as the head of Government, while the President is the head of State, with both holding executive functions. 

On 18 May 2025, in the dramatic re-run of the Romanian presidential elections, centrist candidate and Bucharest mayor, Nicușor Dan, was elected as the next Romanian President in the second-round. Beating George Simion, leader of the far-right Alliance for the Unification of Romanians (AUR), who had comfortably won the first round by 20%, it was a significant comeback victory for Dan. 

The presidential election process was mired in controversy before voting even began. The original election was held on 24 November 2024, but the outcome was annulled by the Romanian Constitutional Court over alleged foreign interference, halting any second round. Far-right independent candidate, Călin Georgescu, who had quadrupled his expected votes, topped the polls and was later accused of benefiting from a Russia-backed disinformation campaign. In second and third place, respectively, were Prime Minister Ciolacu of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), and Lasconi of the centre-right Save Romania Union (USR) party. The far-right Alliance for the Unification of Romanians (AUR) were fourth.   

In January 2025, protests erupted, organised by AUR claiming the democratic process had been subverted, with tens of thousands marching. Georgescu himself, submitted an appeal to the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) to reinstate the results, but the ECHR rejected his request case to implement an interim measure on 21 January 2025. The situation intensified when outgoing President Klaus Iohannis was forced to resign in February 2025, following widespread outrage that he had remained in office amid the annulment.  

Gerogescu was subject to disqualification by the Romanian Central Election Bureau in March 2025, his departure energising Romania’s political right. 

Re-scheduled first round 

In a dramatic turn, Simion, leader of AUR, who had placed fourth in the annulled election, won the first round of the re-run presidential election on 4 May, with 40.96% of the vote, his success likely resulting from the absorption of the far-right base formerly behind Georgescu. A self-described “Trumpist,” Simion ran a populist campaign driven by opposition to EU military aid to Ukraine and frequently criticising Brussels.  

Centrist and pro-European Nicușor Dan, also the mayor of Bucharest, polled second with 21%, overtaking establishment figures. Prime Minister Ciolacu, his candidate having underperformed, resigned after the first round, underscoring the electorate’s disillusionment with traditional parties, a trend also highlighted by the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). 

Second round and result 

The second round on 18 May became a stark referendum on Romania’s future direction. Toward nationalist populism under Simion or a centrist, pro-European course under Dan? Crucially, 1.3 million extra Romanians voted in round two. Despite Simion prematurely declaring victory, Nicușor Dan triumphed in the runoff, securing the presidency with 53% of the vote in a narrow, but decisive, win that was hailed as a strong signal of Romania’s commitment to the EU.  

Simion has stated his intention to ask the Romanian courts to annul the result on the same grounds as November 2024, namely foreign interference.   

Campaign issues 

The OSCE, which upgraded its observation mission in Romania, noted a competitive but deeply polarised campaign environment. Its final statement cited “hostile rhetoric, anti-minority discourse, and inauthentic online behaviour” as factors marring the electoral climate. 

Romania, who has held EU membership since 2007, holds significant strategic importance within the EU. It is a NATO country that shares a 613.8 km border with Ukraine. Indeed, its proximity to both Hungary, emerging as one of Europe’s biggest internal critic and Moldova, an EU candidate country with a Romanian speaking majority, also fraught with alleged foreign interference condemned by the EU, cannot be overlooked.