Just the Facts | German Bundestag Elections: February 2025

On 23 February, German citizens headed to the polls to elect their representatives to the Bundestag, or national Parliament, for the next five years. A total of 59.2 million people were eligible to vote – 84.2% of whom cast their ballots. This was a record-breaking turnout, representing the highest since the unification election in 1990. The coalition of conservative sister parties, the Christian Democratic Union/ Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) led by the CDU’s chancellor candidate, Friedrich Merz, came out on top with 28.6% of the vote. Meanwhile, Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) suffered their worst result since the Second World War and the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) surged to second place with their best election result since the party’s foundation.

But where does the path to power lie? What could coalition talks look like? How will the non-extremist elected politicians manage to appease the 20% of the electorate who voted for the AfD? This Just the Facts delves into the results of the 2025 German Bundestag Elections, the campaign issues at play and what the next steps might be.

Context

The election was called after the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s “traffic light” coalition in November 2024 due to internal conflict over the government’s budget policy, which had led to the dismissal of the finance minister, Christian Lindner. This ruling coalition comprised the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and Alliance 90/ The Greens. It was the first three-party ruling coalition in the history of the Bundestag.

The July 2024 negotiations for the 2025 budget destabilised the coalition’s unity, leading to Chancellor Scholz, the Green deputy chancellor Robert Habeck and Lindner (FDP) meeting a total of 23 times in the chancellery and spending  80 hours in talks. One major contention during this time was regarding the reform of Germany’s so-called debt brake, a constitutional mechanism introduced in 2009 in the middle of the global financial crisis whereby the state may only borrow up to a certain limit (0.35% of GDP).

Usually, elections to the Bundestag take place every four years. The next elections were originally due to take place in September 2025. However, due to the no-confidence vote in Scholz in December 2024, the elections were triggered seven months ahead of time.

Electoral system

There are 630 seats in the Bundestag. When German citizens vote, they have two votes in a system of personalised proportional representation. This means that, in the 299 constituencies across the country, the first vote is cast to directly elect a candidate in the voter’s district, and the second vote is cast to elect a political party. Voters do not directly elect the country’s chancellor, but the results determine which party’s lead candidate becomes chancellor. In Germany, a party must win at least 5% of the vote or get at least three members directly elected in their district in order to be represented in the Bundestag. In the past, in the instance where a candidate wins a seat in the first vote but their party does not meet the 5% quota in the second vote, this candidate was elected to an “overhang seat”. However, for the 2025 election, this system has been abolished.

Dating back to post-World War II history, the allies encouraged a federal system in Germany, making it very difficult to form single-party governments. This means that coalitions are the norm in the country. Only once since the first Bundestag election in 1949 has federal Germany been ruled by a single party with a parliamentary majority – in 1957 when the CDU/CSU bloc led by Konrad Adenauer won an outright majority.

Once a majority coalition is formed, the German President, currently Frank-Walter Steinmeier, puts forward a candidate for chancellor, usually in agreement with the coalition parties. The candidate must then secure majority support in the Bundestag in order to be officially elected as leader.

Parties and results

1. Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU): This centre-right alliance, comprising the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the CSU, emphasises Christian democratic and conservative values and has been Germany’s largest political force in the post-war era. During the election, it campaigned on a platform of lowering income tax, as well as tighter restrictions on asylum seekers. Regarding Ukraine, Merz endorsed the delivery of Taurus cruise missiles during his campaign.

Chancellor candidate: Friedrich Merz

Result: 28.5% of the vote, translating to 208 seats in the Bundestag.

2. Alternative für Deutschland (AfD): A far-right populist party, the AfD is known for its nationalist, anti-immigration, and Eurosceptic positions. It has gained support in eastern Germany but remains controversial and isolated from mainstream coalitions who have adopted a so-called firewall or brandmauer. In 2024, a German court upheld the extremist classification for the AfD as an organisation.

Chancellor candidate: Alice Weidel

Result: The election marked a significant surge for the party, as it garnered 20.8% of the vote – its best performance since the party was founded in 2013. It obtained 152 seats, becoming the second-largest party in the Bundestag.

3. Social Democratic Party (SPD): As Germany’s oldest party, the centre-left SPD supports workers’ rights, social justice, and a strong welfare state. It has historically been a major governing party and led the 2020-2024 coalition government with the Greens and FDP.

Chancellor candidate: Olaf Scholz

Result: 16.4%, representing a 9% decrease. This translates to 120 seats (a loss of 86 compared to the previous election).

4. Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne): A progressive, environmentalist party, the Greens prioritise climate action, sustainability, and social policies. They have gained influence in recent years and were part of the incumbent governing coalition.

Chancellor candidate: Robert Habeck

Result: The party obtained 11.6% of the vote, resulting in 85 seats in the Bundestag. This represents a 3% decrease compared to the last election.

5. The Left (Die Linke): A socialist party, Die Linke supports wealth redistribution, workers’ rights, and a strong welfare state. It has roots in East Germany’s former communist party and has struggled in recent years to maintain national relevance. The Left ran a highly successful social media campaign, appealing to younger voters.

Result: The party received 8.8% of the vote, securing 64 seats in the Bundestag. This represented a surprise comeback for the party after years of declining membership and poor returns at the polls.

Chancellor candidate: Heidi Reichinnek

It is important to note that FDP suffered heavy losses, gaining 4.3% of the vote share and failing to reach the 5% threshold only for the second time in its history. The party will therefore not be entering the Bundestag. Another party worth mentioning is Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) the breakaway leftist alliance, led by the pro-Russian and former Left MP, Sahra Wagenknecht. BSW also failed to make the 5% quota, narrowly lacking just 13,000 votes at 4.97%. Wagenknecht has since said that BSW might legally challenge the election results.

Campaign issues

Economy

Internal conflicts and the subsequent collapse of the government in late 2024 took place against the backdrop of economic stagnation in Germany, with the country facing a third consecutive year of recession. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted a lagging 0.3% growth for Germany for 2025.

Prices across all economic sectors are high, in particular in the energy sector, as the country can no longer depend on cheap energy from Russia since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Consumer prices in the country, when harmonised to compare with other European Union countries, have risen by 2.9% year-on-year in November 2024. Germany’s economy is also heavily dependent on exports and has been significantly impacted by increased exposure to Chinese exports in the last decade on the global market. In the automotive industry, for example, three quarters of all EU imported cars into the US are made in Germany and the German car industry contributes around 6% to the country’s GDP.

Attacks

The electoral campaign was marked by two attacks, including an attack at a Christmas market in December in the city of Magdeburg and a knife attack in January 2025 in Aschaffenburg.

Although it was reported that the suspect of the Magdeburg attack had expressed sympathies for the AfD, the attack provided fertile ground for the far-right party’s anti-migrant campaign. AfD’s leader, Alice Weidel, publicly embraced the term “remigration” at the party’s conference on 13 January – a problematic term which is understood to mean the mass deportation of people with a migrant or refugee background and has been criticised for promoting potentially unlawful returns of refugees as well as negative perceptions of refugees and migrants in society.

What is the brandenmauer?

According to the Irish Times’ German correspondent, Derek Scally, it is a mixture of “principles and truculence”.

Since the end of the Second World War and the atrocities committed during the Holocaust, there has been a consensus among Germany’s main political parties that the far and extreme right must never be allowed in government again. This so-called firewall has also extended to any open collaboration with far-right parties.

The principle is also reflected in public polls. An ARD public television poll from before the election showed 69% of respondents rejected AfD participation in government, with 28% in favour.

In January 2024, following the series of violent attacks referred to above, the CDU led by Merz tabled a failed motion, calling for hardline migration policies and deportation measures. This motion was only able to be tabled with the support of the AfD. This represented the first time since the Second World War that the centre-right and the far-right established the same position, and to many, represented a contradiction in Merz’s position of maintaining the firewall. Merz’s motion was met with a lot of  criticism, including from CDU’s previous leader, Angela Merkel, who published a statement three weeks out from the election.

Denying cooperation with the far-right denied in a televised debate prior to the election, Merz stated that he would not cooperate with the extreme right, maintaining that there was “no common ground”.

Role of social media in the election

Social media played a very important role in this election. During their campaign, the AfD enjoyed public endorsement from Trump advisor and X founder, Elon Musk, who went so far as to host a livestream with AfD on his platform. Musk also made a surprise video call intervention at an AfD rally in January, stating that the party was the “best hope for Germany” and that people should “take pride in being German”.

Reports have found that Musk’s backing led to “significant increases in overall engagements for the German far-right political group on the social network” with engagement figures at times achieving an 8-fold increase.

Research carried out by Global Witness, which also looked at TikTok, found that recommendation algorithms have shown “evidence of substantial far-right political bias in Germany”. Global Witness found that 78% of the political content that was algorithmically recommended to its test accounts from accounts the test users did not follow, was supportive of the AfD party. Findings found that TikTok and X users in Germany were exposed to right-leaning content more than twice as much as left-leaning content in the lead up to the elections. Global Witness confirmed it had shared its findings with the European Commission.

Coalition talks and next steps

As the political landscape in Germany continues to fragment, coalition building has become a lot more complex. The CDU will likely be the most dominant partner in a coalition with the SPD with Merz as chancellor; the same constellation that Angela Merkel had in three out of her four coalitions, called the “grand coalition”. Coalition talks are set to begin on 28 February and will be led by Merz and SPD’s new leader, Lars Klingbeil.

However, importantly, it is not a given that a coalition will indeed form as talks will undoubtedly be difficult. Merz’s failed motion on migration which garnered support from the AfD was categorised by Scholz as an “unforgivable mistake”. Reports are also suggesting that Merz’s abrasive negotiating style could also hamper coalition-building.

Following the election, support for the AfD is at a historical high level, which means that the Bundestag now has to charter unprecedented territory. Every fifth person in Germany voted for the AfD party, adding to the party’s increased normalisation and legitimacy across the country. Importantly, they received high levels of support among young men in particular aged 18-24, whereas the Left was the party which gained the highest level of support among women in the same age cohort.

Generally, the combined far-right (20%) and far-left vote (14%) make up over a third of the German electorate. It remains to be seen how the governing coalition manages to represent a split society and appease these voters, especially those in the younger demographic.