EU Elections To Watch in 2024

2024 is an immense year for elections. This year, more voters than ever in history – over three billion people – will head to the polls in 40 different countries, representing around 41% of the world’s population and 42% of the world’s GDP. From India and Indonesia to the United States of America and Russia – how the votes play out will dictate trends in trade, security, and the financial markets for years to come.

In the European Union, over 400 million people are eligible to vote in the world’s biggest cross-border election – the European elections in June. Europe will also see national elections in Belgium, Portugal, Romania, and Austria to name a few. Key issues such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, immigration and the green transition will likely feature heavily in many election campaigns. Closer to home, Irish local elections will take place, as well as a possible general election.

In this Just the Facts, we look ahead to the key elections to watch in the EU in 2024.

1 | European Parliament (6-9 June 2024)

The European Parliament is the world’s only directly elected transnational assembly and the only EU body elected by the people. Every five years, voters choose over 700 members – or MEPs – to represent nearly 450 million Europeans.

This June, EU citizens across 27 countries will elect 720 MEPs. Each Member State elects a different number of MEPs based on its population size. For example, there are 96 German MEPs and 6 Maltese MEPs. This year, Ireland will gain an additional MEP, with Irish voters electing 14 MEPs in total across 3 constituencies (Midlands North-West; South; and Dublin).

Big differences remain among the Member States’ electoral systems. The minimum voting age ranges from 16 to 18 and 14 Member States require political parties to pass a percentage threshold to join the European Parliament. Voting turnout varies drastically from country to country. Five Member States have compulsory voting. However, overall, turnout for European elections has decreased, from a high of 62% for the first elections in 1979, to 51% at the last elections in 2019. However, in December 2023, the European Parliament reported that voter interest is on the rise for this year’s elections.

Currently, the largest parties are the centre-right, European People’s Party (EPP); the centre-left, Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D); and the liberal/centrist, Renew. However, recent polls and forecasts have projected a surge in support for Eurosceptic and far-right parties. Some polls have indicated that the far-right the Identity and Democracy group (ID) could become the third largest political group in the European Parliament, with gains of 87 seats.

While a far-right majority in Parliament is unlikely, their increased presence could profoundly impact EU politics and policymaking. Issues like migration, climate change, and EU integration could become more contentious. Voting coalitions may change significantly, and we might see a tactical shift further right by centre-right groups in an effort to respond to growing public discontent on sensitive topics.

2 | Belgium (9 June)

This year, Belgium will host a double election with both the European and federal elections taking place on the same day. Voters will head to the polls to elect a new Chamber of Representatives to represent 11.6 million Belgian citizens. Belgium is a federal system with power-sharing arrangements, with seven parties in the current coalition government.

The 150 Members of the Chamber of Representatives are directly elected via universal suffrage. From a linguistic point of view, the Chamber is composed of 62 French-speaking members and 88 Dutch-speaking members. Additionally, since 2002, Belgian political parties have had to run equal numbers of men and women on their candidate lists in each constituency during elections.

The latest polls indicate that the current seven-party coalition is on track to win enough support to govern again. The far-right Flemish independentists, Vlaams Belang, are leading in Flanders, the Socialist Party (PS) is ahead in Wallonia, while the liberal Reformist Movement (MR) are tipped to win in Brussels. Belgium took up the presidency role of the Council of the EU in January 2024 with the current prime minister, Alexander De Croo of the Open VLD (Flemish liberals), at the helm. A recent survey reported that 20% of respondents would choose De Croo to lead again. However, his party’s ratings (Open VLD) are currently polling at an all-time low.

With the far-right Vlaams Belang set to top the polls, as well as the recent announcement that a former Miss Belgium will run for the liberal MR party, it’s set to be an interesting campaign.

3 | Portugal (10 March 2024)

In November 2023, Portugal’s President, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, called a snap election after the forced resignation of Portugal’s Socialist prime minister, António Costa. Costa is currently being subject to a judicial investigation regarding corruption. However, he has remained head of a caretaker government since stepping down. Portugal’s parliament, the Assembly of the Republic (AR), was officially dissolved on 15 January 2024. The Assembly is made up of 230 members. Votes are converted into seats using the proportional representation system.

The latest polls put the new leader of Portugal’s Socialist Party (PS), Pedro Nuno Santos in the lead at 30%. However, PS remains far from a parliamentary majority. It will be a tight race as its main opposition, the centre-right Social Democratic Party (PSD), led by Luís Montenegro are coming in at a close second, with 27%.

There was also a large jump in support for the far-right party, Chega (Enough), who are currently ranked in third place, at 17%. Chega has been criticised for its racist, anti-LGBTQI+, anti-immigrant, and anti-Roma rhetoric. Some observers have said that their success in the elections could be key to the formation of a wider right-wing government. However, PSD leader, Luís Montenegro, has ruled out any form of reliance on Chega to govern which could potentially lead to a repeat ballot.

4 | Romania (Between September – December 2024)

2024 is a bumper election year for Romania, as the country will hold local, presidential, parliamentary, and European elections. Parliamentary elections must be held in Romania on or before 21 March 2025, three months after the term of the incumbent legislature of the Romanian Parliament expires. However, the elections are expected in December 2024.

The bicameral parliament (Parlamentul României) consists of the Senate (Senat) and the Chamber of Deputies (Camera Deputaţilor). The Chamber of Deputies (and the Senate) are elected every four years based on a proportional electoral system. There are 466 seats in total – 136 Senators and 330 Deputies.

The latest polls show the current coalition government, led by prime minister Marcel Ciolacu’s leftist Social Democrats party (PSD) and the centre-right Liberals (PNL), as coming in at first (at 30%) and second (at 19%), respectively.

However, as in many other EU Member States, the far-right have steadily gained more support in Romania. The liberal PNL are currently tied neck and neck in the polls with the ultra-nationalist opposition party, Alliance for the Unity of Romanians, or AUR – an abbreviation for “gold” in Romanian. Some experts have credited AUR’s steady gains as due in part to the Romanian diaspora. In the 2020 elections, one in four Romanians abroad voted for AUR.

Some recent surveys have identified PSD prime minister, Ciolacu, has having the highest trust rating among Romanian politicians, at 26%. However, he is closely followed by far-right leaders Diana Şoşoacă (SOS) and George Simion (AUR) at 23%.

Observers say that, while AUR will win more support than the last elections, they will not be in the position to form a coalition. They say that it is most likely that the Social Democrats and the Liberals will continue in a coalition.

5 | Austria (expected by autumn 2024)

By autumn 2024, Austrian citizens will have elected a new National Council, the lower house of Austria’s bicameral parliament, comprising 183 Members. Elections to the National Council take place every five years, and are based on the principles of proportional representation, an open list system and preferential votes. Austria is the only EU country where the voting age for national parliamentary elections is 16.

Austria’s legislative election this year has been cited as one of the most critical in terms of Europe’s struggle with the rise of the far-right. The far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ), a party founded in the 1950s by a former SS general, is leading the polls at an impressive 27%. The party is known for its Austria-first rhetoric, as well as its criticism of EU sanctions against Russia. The FPÖ have capitalised on corruption scandals which have hit the current ruling party, the conservative, Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). The ÖVP are currently third in the polls behind the FPÖ and the Social Democrats (SPÖ).

It is possible that the next Austrian chancellor could be an FPÖ candidate such as party leader Herbert Kickl. However, large demonstrations against the far-right took place in Vienna in January 2024, following similar protests in Germany against the far-right AfD – a party which was partly modelled on the FPÖ.

Keeping things interesting, Austria’s Beer Party, a project which was founded largely as a joke, is also running in the legislative elections. Watch this space!

Special mention

Irish local elections – Taking place in June 2024, alongside the European elections, the Irish local elections could create momentum for a possible general election this year. A general election must take place in Ireland before March 2025, and so there is currently an expectation that a general election could take place in the second half of 2024. Some observers have indicated that, if opinion polls for the general elections are replicated to the local level, Sinn Féin could treble their council seats (from 9.5% in 2019). Additionally, as there is a lower threshold of votes needed to be elected at the local level, relative to the general or European elections, it is possible that we could see the emergence and potential election of single-issue, anti-immigrant independent candidates elected locally.

Further elections to watch out for

United States – Will Donald Trump return to the White House? The US will elect a new president on 5 November 2024.

United Kingdom – Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has said that a UK general election will assumedly take place in the second half of 2024. The Labour Party is currently leading in the polls.

India – The Indian public are set to vote in general elections between April and May. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party is set to hold on to its majority. However, India’s opposition parties continue to accuse Modi of targeting and intimidation.

Russia – Russians will elect their next president on 17 March – don’t expect any surprises there as Vladimir Putin is certainly set to secure a fourth term.

Full list of presidential and parliamentary elections in EU Member States in 2024

*Date not confirmed

Full list of presidential and parliamentary elections in EU Member States in 2024

*Date not confirmed

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