Belarus Parliamentary Election: February 2024

On Sunday 25 February 2024, Belarusian voters headed to the polls to vote in tightly controlled parliamentary and local elections. The opposition decried Sunday’s elections as “fake”. Belarus’ President, Alexander Lukashenko, has ruled for almost 30 years and has been dubbed “Europe’s last dictator”. This Just the Facts looks at the election results, Lukashenko’s regime in Belarus and the crackdown on dissent.

A brief history of Belarus

The name Belarus is closely related to the term “Belaya Rus” which literally translates as “White Rus” in Russian. The term “Rus”, also known as Ruthenia, has a broad geographical and political meaning, referring to the medieval Eastern Slavic territories which now make up Belarus and Ukraine.

From the late 18^th century up to 1917 Belarusian territories were part of the Russian Empire. Before that, Belarus was part of a federative state, consisting of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania and the Kingdom of Poland.

Some cite the political history of Belarus as beginning in the early 20^th century, with the first political party (Socialist Party) founded in 1905. In 1918, while still occupied by the German authorities following the First World War, Belarus proclaimed its independence as the Belarusian Democratic Republic. However, this Republic did not last long, with the Russian Red Army conquering Belarus and establishing communist rule, following the German withdrawal in late 1918.

In the post-Second World War years, Belarus was one of the most prosperous economies of the USSR. In 1991, Belarus declared independence with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Since 1994, Alexander Lukashenko has been elected as President of Belarus for six consecutive terms.

State of play in Belarus

The parliamentary and local elections held at the end of February represent the first since the contentious 2020 presidential vote that gave President Lukashenko his sixth term in office, triggering the largest anti-government protests in Belarusian history.

Lukashenko’s primary opposition in 2020 was Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who became a political candidate after her husband, Sergei Tsikhanousky, was arbitrarily arrested during his election campaign and later sentenced to 18 years detention on trumped up charges. She is thought by many to have won the election, but the country’s Election Commission maintained that Lukashenko won 80% of the vote. Tsikhanouskaya fled Belarus immediately after the election and has been in exile in Lithuania since.

Since 2020, the European Union has imposed various sanctions against Belarus in response to ongoing repression and human rights violations. In 2022, sanctions were further extended explicitly targeting Belarus’ support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Lukashenko has supported Putin since the beginning of the invasion, and has said in the past that he sees Putin as an “elder brother”. In 2020, Lukashenko received help from Putin to quell mass street demonstrations in the form of servicemen and military hardware. During the protests in 2020, more than 35,000 people were arrested, thousands were beaten in police custody and hundreds of independent media outlets and nongovernmental organisations were shut down and outlawed. In February 2022, Lukashenko allowed the Kremlin to use Belarusian territory to send troops into Ukraine. Lukashenko has continued to rely on subsidies from Russia throughout his mandate.

The recent parliamentary and local elections  that took place on 25 February amid a severe crackdown on dissent. Minsk-based Human Rights Centre, Viasna, say that, as of 7 March 2024, there are 1,414 political prisoners in Belarus.

Belarusian authorities refused to invite observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation (OSCE) to monitor these elections. Meanwhile, Ihar Karpenka, the head of Belarus’ Election Commission said that observers from Russia and Central Asian nations (all countries allied with Belarus) were invited.

Who were Belarusians voting for?

On 25 February, Belarusian citizens were asked to vote to elect deputies of the House of Representatives of the National Assembly (110 deputies), as well as representatives for local Councils of Deputies (12,511 members of various municipal councils). In the House of Representatives, members are directly elected from single-seat constituencies by absolute majority vote in up to two rounds. All representatives at local and parliamentary level serve a term of five years.

Four parties were on the ballot paper: Belaya Rus; the Communist Party; the Liberal Democratic Party of Belarus; and the Republican Party of Labour and Justice. However, the majority of candidates ran as independents. The key reason behind such a lack of political parties has been Lukashenko’s liquidation of opposition parties in recent years as part of his attempt to silence critical voices.  Among the 16 parties that were officially registered in Belarus before the 2020 election, only the four listed above remain. All four parties are viewed as loyal to Lukashenko’s government and presented very similar political programmes.

Interestingly, Tsikhanouskaya’s opposition movement employed artificial intelligence tools to launch a “virtual candidate” named “Yas Gaspadar”. This AI candidate was driven by ChatGPT and focused “his” campaign on issues such as the release of political prisoners, the adoption of a new constitution, a ban on the import of nuclear weapons as well as free elections.

What were the results?

Belaya Rus came out with 51 seats in the House of Representatives, while the Party of Labour and Justice won eight, the Communist Party won seven, and the Liberal Democratic Party won four. In the local Council of Deputies Belaya Rus will have 3,234 representatives on the municipal level, the Liberal Democratic Party will have 76, the Party of Labour and Justice will have 186 representatives and the Communist Party will have 307.

The turnout was reportedly 73.46%. However, Euroradio, an exiled radio station based in Poland, have reported that Belarusians were “persuaded” to vote in many cases. Some workers of state-owned entities were threatened by the non-renewal of their contracts if they did not vote.

On the election day itself, supporters of the opposition successfully broadcast a video address made by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya on some 2,000 screens in public spaces. The action was organized by BYPOL, a coalition of former police and security forces officers.

Next steps

Following the elections, Lukashenko announced to the state-owned news agency, BelTA, that he intended to run for another presidential term in 2025.

Additionally, a new government body called the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly (ABPA) is set to be created. The APBA will contain 1,200 delegates, but authority will ultimately reside with its leadership committee and its chair. The ABPA could become the supreme governing authority in Belarus, with the power to draft legislation, impeach presidents, appoint key officials etc. Elections of delegates to the ABPA from local Councils of Deputies and civil society will be held from 1 to 10 April. As Lukashenko has said he will be running for a seventh presidential term, he will not be immediately taking up the role as chair of the APBA. However, he is guaranteed to be chair should he ever choose to leave the presidency as the president of Belarus becomes an automatic member of the APBA after stepping down. In the meantime, the chair will most probably be hand-picked by Lukashenko himself.

It is likely that severe crackdowns of political mobilisation in Belarusian society will continue to persist. In this adverse context, the opposition have opted for a strategy of building proto-state structures from abroad. Their system of governance already consists of the presidential administration (Tsikhanouskaya’s Office), the government (the United Transitional Cabinet), and a future parliament (the Coordination Council). Additionally, BYPOL are reportedly planning a “coup” against Lukashenko, to be executed “at the right time”.

Results: House of Representatives of the National Assembly

Source: Central Election Commission of the Republic of Belarus

Results: Local Councils of Deputies

Source: Central Election Commission of the Republic of Belarus

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