Increase in Dissatisfaction with Direction of EU but Support for Membership Remains High
Almost 10% increase in dissatisfaction with the direction of the European Union, however 84% of Irish citizens believe Ireland should remain a member of the EU.
8 May 2024 Despite a slight decline of 4% on last year’s poll, the overwhelming majority of people in both Ireland 84% and Northern Ireland 76%, believe Ireland should remain a member of the European Union (88% in 2023). Now in its eleventh year, this European Movement Ireland and Amárach Research poll is the only island of Ireland poll dedicated to EU affairs.
While support for Ireland’s membership of the EU remains strong at 84%, the 2024 results indicate a notable decline in both jurisdictions on the question of whether the EU is moving in the right direction, with a drop from 58% in 2023 to 49% this year.
Commenting on the findings, Noelle O Connell, CEO of European Movement Ireland said: “At a pivotal time for Europe, Ireland’s continuing high support for EU membership, is welcome. However, this year’s less favourable findings on a number of key issues are of concern and serve as a timely reminder of the continual need for public engagement, dialogue and communication on EU affairs. Equally, this also highlights the importance of the EU listening to voters’ concerns.”
Among the areas of low satisfaction with the EU’s performance were its response on issues such as migration, war in Ukraine and the Israel – Gaza conflict. 46% of respondents in Ireland and 44% in Northern Ireland ranked the EU’s performance weakest in the area of migration. The timing of this poll coincides with the debate around the new EU Migration and Asylum Pact.
Nearly half of respondents in both jurisdictions believe that the EU’s performance is strongest in the area of Trade 46% in ROI, and 55% in NI. This underlines the positive public perception of the Single Market and its benefit to the economies, both North and South.
Responding to the EU’s performance across key areas of EU responsibility, Ms. O Connell said; “The EU’s performance on trade and business continues to score highly amongst respondents. However, on some of the major geopolitical crises of our time, such as war in Ukraine, Migration, and the Israel- Gaza conflict, our research highlights the challenges the EU faces in uniting Europe on its response to these issues into the future.”
Over two years into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, those polled were asked whether they were satisfied with the EU’s response. Nearly half of those surveyed reported dissatisfaction with the EU’s response at 47% in ROI and 49% in NI. On the question of whether people were satisfied with the EU’s response to the Israel-Gaza conflict, even greater dissatisfaction levels were found, with two thirds or 64% in ROI and 72% in NI reported.
Furthermore, the ongoing war in Ukraine and the Israel-Gaza conflict has led to an increased focus on the future of EU security and defence across the bloc. This year’s findings saw an increase of 56% in ROI in favour of Ireland strengthening its defence and security cooperation with the EU, up 7% from last year (49% in 2023).
This year’s poll revealed slight differences in comparison to last year’s findings on the question of a United Ireland in the EU, with opinion being nearly evenly divided. In Northern Ireland 47% (45% in 2023) believe there will be a United Ireland with 43% (39% in 2023) disagreeing. In ROI, similar to last year, this year’s poll found a majority of 55% stating they do not believe that there will be a United Ireland in the EU over the next 10 years (58% in 2023).
Of concern in this year’s poll is the growing lack of trust in political institutions in both Ireland and Northern Ireland which could be reflective of the global trend of increasing polarisation in public and political discourse. When asked which of the institutions they trusted most, 34% chose the Irish government, 26% said they trusted the EU, but a significant majority of 40% stated none of the above.
In Northern Ireland, a similar rating to Ireland for the EU, with trust at 28%. The Irish government ranked higher at 24% than trust in the UK government at 8%, with the Northern Ireland Executive being included this year for the first time. A majority of 31% said they do not trust any of the institutions listed.
2024 marks the 20th anniversary of the biggest ever enlargement of the European Union, when 10 new countries became members of the EU, under the Irish presidency in 2004. Commenting on the question of enlargement in the poll, Ms. O Connell said; “We welcome the consistently strong support, across the island of Ireland for the EU’s enlargement with 57% in favour of more countries joining the Union.”
With a month to go to polling day, a large majority 88% agree that it is important to vote in the upcoming European Parliament elections. However, in the last European elections in 2019, Irish voter turnout was below the EU average. This is why European Movement Ireland is currently running a Can Vote Will Vote campaign to incentivise voters to get out and vote on Friday 7 June and have their say.”
Key Findings
- Although the vast majority in both ROI 84% and NI 76% believe the Republic of Ireland should remain a member of the EU, there is a slight decline in support since the 2023 survey was conducted.
- The 2024 results indicate a significant decline in agreement that the EU is moving in the right direction. This decline is evident in both jurisdictions with 49% think that the EU is moving in the right direction ROI (vs 58% in 2023). There is also an increase to 24% thinking that the EU is not moving in the right direction (vs 15% in 2023).
- In NI 49% think that the EU is moving in the right direction (vs 58% in 2023) and 33% think that the EU is not moving in the right direction (vs 28% in 2023)
- Nearly half of respondents in both jurisdictions believe that the EU’s performance is strongest in the area of Trade 46% in ROI and 55% in NI.
- This was followed by the Environment 10% in ROI and 12% in NI. A similar proportion in both jurisdictions believe that the EU’s performance is weakest in the area of Migration 46% in ROI and 44% in NI.
- Overall, the majority in ROI 55% do not believe there will be a united Ireland in the EU in the next 10 years versus 58% in last year’s poll.
- Opinion is more divided on this issue in NI 47% believe there will be a united Ireland, 43% believe there won’t be and 10% don’t know.
- More than half 57% in both jurisdictions support more countries joining the EU.
- Satisfaction with the EU’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is low overall. In ROI one third 33% are satisfied, 47% are dissatisfied and 19% don’t know. The outcome is similar in NI 37% are satisfied, 49% are dissatisfied and 14% don’t know.
- Satisfaction with the EU’s response to the Israel-Gaza conflict is even lower. In ROI, 1 in 5 19% are satisfied, two-thirds 64% are dissatisfied and 18% don’t know. The outcome is similar in NI 14% are satisfied, 72% are dissatisfied and 13% don’t know.
- A majority now agree that Ireland should invest more in its defence and security cooperation with the EU 56% agree in ROI and 54% in NI. This is an increase of 7% from the 2023 figure at 49%.
- There appears to be a growing lack of trust of political institutions in both ROI and NI. In ROI, while 34% trust the Irish Government the most, 26% trust the EU the most and 40% trust neither of these institutions.
- In NI 28% trust the EU the most, 24% trust the Irish Government the most, 8% trust the UK Government and 8% trust the Northern Ireland Executive. However, nearly one third 31% trust none of these institutions.
Background and Methodology
Amárach Research was commissioned by European Movement Ireland to undertake research on attitudes to the EU across the island of Ireland. This work builds on previous research commissioned by EM Ireland. This research programme was built around a nationally representative sample of 1,200 in both jurisdictions.
The survey data collection was undertaken online, and the data was collected and analysed on Amárach’s VoxCo platform. The two surveys ran simultaneously in both locations. Fieldwork dates were 26th– 28th March 2024. The questionnaire was similar in both jurisdictions.
The demographic structure we have used in Northern Ireland takes account of the vote in Great Britain on the Brexit Referendum in May 2016. Respondents were classified as to whether they have voted to leave or remain in the European Union in that referendum.
This is the second time that the poll was conducted in Northern Ireland, the first time was in June 2023. All participants were aged 18+. In both Northern Ireland and the Republic, the results have been weighted to reflect the demographic structure of both jurisdictions.
This report examines the results of the latest survey and compares them with the 2023 results where relevant. In slide 26, where questions are comparable, we have compared the results to previous waves of research. Prior to 2023, previous research was carried out for European Movement Ireland by Red C.