Dublin, July 3rd, 2023: Support for Ireland remaining a member of the EU remains stable and overwhelmingly positive at 88% in Ireland (ROI) and 79% in Northern Ireland, according to a poll released by European Movement Ireland. In Northern Ireland, 71% of people who say they voted leave in the Brexit referendum support Ireland remaining a member of the EU.
The poll, conducted by Amárach Research, is the first dedicated all-island opinion poll on EU issues. It shows that a majority (66%) of people in Northern Ireland believe that Northern Ireland is doing worse since Brexit, while half (51%) in the Ireland (ROI) believe so. 64% of respondents who say they voted leave in the Brexit referendum believe Northern Ireland is doing worse.
Just one in four people (24%) in Ireland (ROI) believe there will be a United Ireland in the EU within ten years, a drop of 7 points on last year, while almost half (45%) in Northern Ireland believe so. Meanwhile three quarters of people in Northern Ireland (74%) and 51% in Ireland (ROI) believe that Northern Ireland should be represented in the European Parliament.
Worth noting in light of the Government’s Consultative Forum on International Security Policy, 49% of respondents in Ireland (ROI) believe that Ireland should be part of increased EU defence and security co-operation, a drop of 10 points from last year. Those aged 55+ in are most likely to be in favour of increased participation.
Commenting on the findings, Noelle O Connell, CEO of European Movement Ireland said:
“This is our tenth year producing an annual opinion poll on EU issues and the first time we have included Northern Ireland in the findings. Since Brexit, the relationship between people in Northern Ireland and the European Union has been uncertain and we think it’s important to measure public sentiment towards the major issues affecting the relationship between the European Union and this island.”
“What’s surprising is the large jump of people in Ireland (ROI) in one year – up from 43% to 58% – who don’t believe there will be a united Ireland in the next ten years. This is particularly noteworthy as the responses on this issue remained relatively constant over three years, with about one third of people in Ireland saying they believed there would be a United Ireland in the EU.”
While support for Ireland remaining a member of the EU remains stable and overwhelmingly positive at 88% in Ireland (ROI), just 58% in Ireland (ROI) believe the EU is moving in the right direction.
Ms O Connell commented: “There has been a significant increase of 9% in the number of people in Ireland (ROI) who are unsure if the EU is moving in the right direction, a jump from 18% to 27% in one year. More encouragingly, 70% of people in Ireland (ROI) say they could not be convinced that Ireland would be better off outside of the EU.”
“There is also a clear demand for the EU to be more active in policy areas important to Irish people. Almost one in three in Ireland (ROI) would like to see an increased role for the EU in healthcare (32%) and housing (28%), though housing is seen as a higher priority for younger people. Some 43% of people aged 18-24 and 49% aged 25 – 34 in Ireland (ROI) said they would like to see more of a role for the EU in housing. This is unsurprising given the current housing crisis.”
Meanwhile, when all respondents were asked whether they felt closest to Europe, Great Britain or the USA, 65% of people in Ireland (ROI) said they feel closest to Europe, followed by Great Britian at 12%. This compares to 60% in Northern Ireland who feel closest to Europe, and 30% who said they feel closest to Great Britain.
For more, follow #EMIEUPoll2023
-Ends-
METHODOLOGY
Key Findings of European Movement Ireland’s EU Poll 2023 Ireland / Northern Ireland edition.
- A large majority in both Ireland (88%) and Northern Ireland (79%) believe the Republic of Ireland should remain a member of the EU.
- 3 in 5 in Ireland (58%) and Northern Ireland (58%) think the EU is moving in the right direction when compared to the wrong direction. In Northern Ireland the wrong direction is at 28%, vs 15% for Ireland.
- Around half in Ireland (49%) and Northern Ireland (52%) feel that Ireland should be part of increased EU defence and security co-operation. The number opposing participation is higher in Northern Ireland (34% vs 28% in Ireland).
- Around 1 in 10 in both Ireland (9%) and Northern Ireland (14%) believe that Northern Ireland is doing better since Brexit. Two-thirds (66%) in Northern Ireland believe it is doing worse, compared to half (51%) in Ireland.
- Over 7 in 10 (74%) in Northern Ireland believe that Northern Ireland should have representatives who would sit as MEPs in the European Parliament, this is compared to half (51%) in Ireland who agree with this.
- 45% of respondents in Northern Ireland believe there will be a United Ireland in the EU in the next 10 years – versus 24% in Ireland.
- In Ireland, two-thirds (65%) feel closest to Europe, compared to 12% for Great Britain. In Northern Ireland, 60% feel closest to Europe and 30% for Great Britain.
- Just 14% in Ireland report that they could be convinced that Ireland would be better off outside the EU, compared to 24% in Northern Ireland.
- In Ireland, 43% are satisfied that Ireland pays more into the EU budget than it receives, compared to 35% that are dissatisfied with this. In Northern Ireland, the satisfaction number is 63%, compared to 21% who are dissatisfied.
- When considering important policy areas for the European Union, healthcare and housing are ranked highest for 1st mentions in Ireland. In Northern Ireland, environment is ranked in first place, followed by healthcare.
- 3 in 10 (31%) in Ireland believe that Irish fishermen and women have benefitted from being in the EU, with a higher proportion agreeing with this in Northern Ireland (46%).
- In Ireland, there is equal trust split between the Irish Government (50%) and the EU (50%). In Northern Ireland, 44% trust the EU, compared to 34% for the Irish Government and 22% for the British Government.
Notes:
- Contact Cathy Gray, Head of Communications and Youth Engagement, EM Ireland to arrange interview / comment: cathy@europeanmovement.ie ; 0868075332
Methodology:
- Amárach Research was commissioned by European Movement Ireland to undertake research on attitudes to the EU across the island of Ireland. This work builds on previous research commissioned by EM, conducted by Red C.
- This research programme was built around a nationally representative sample of 1,200 in both jurisdictions. The data collection in the Republic of Ireland was undertaken by Amárach. Data collection in Northern Ireland was undertaken by Lucid Talk. The survey data collection was undertaken online and the data was collected and analysed on Amárach’s VoxCo platform.
- The two surveys ran simultaneously in both locations. Fieldwork dates were 2nd-5th of June. The questionnaire used was almost identical in both locations. The only minor difference were in some answer options.
- The demographic structure we have used in Northern Ireland takes account of the vote in Great Britain on the Brexit Referendum in May 2016. Respondents were classified as to whether they have voted to leave or Remain in the European Union in that referendum.
About European Movement Ireland:
- Founded in 1954, European Movement (EM) Ireland is the longest established Irish NGO working on European affairs. An independent, not-for-profit, membership organisation, EM Ireland works to develop the connection between Ireland and the European Union. We facilitate links between all sectors of Irish society and the EU, through advocacy campaigns, education programmes, training courses, information briefings and networking events. For more information, visit www.europeanmovement.ie .