On 10 March 2024, over six million Portuguese voters headed to the polls to elect a new Parliament. In November 2023, Portugal’s President, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, called a snap election after the forced resignation of the Socialist Prime Minister, António Costa, who is currently subject to a judicial investigation regarding corruption. This is Portugal’s second election in two years. In a turn towards the right, the conservative Democratic Alliance has claimed a narrow election win, while the far-right has quadrupled its number of seats.
A snap election
Portugal is a semi-Presidential Republic and a parliamentary democracy. The Assembly of the Republic (AR), is the Parliament of Portugal. The Assembly has a four-year mandate and is made up of 230 members. Members are elected using the proportional representation system.
The last general election took place in January 2022. It was also a snap election which was triggered when far-left members of the minority Socialist government Parliament rejected the proposed budget for the upcoming year. Despite this, the Socialist Party went on to win an outright majority, cementing its power in government.
On 15 January 2024, the Assembly was officially dissolved with a decree published by the centre-right President, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa. The dissolution came after the socialist Prime Minister, António Costa, resigned from office in November 2023 amid a widespread corruption probe involving lithium mining concessions and green hydrogen projects. Costa himself was not accused of any crime, nevertheless he resigned from office, stating that “the dignity of the prime minister’s office is not compatible with any suspicion on his integrity.”
Who were the main parties?
Two political parties have alternated power since the end of Portugal’s dictatorship 50 years ago: the centre-left Socialist Party (PS), and the centre-right Social Democratic Party (PSD).
For this parliamentary election, the PSD campaigned with a coalition of conservative parties. The Democratic Alliance (AD), led by Luís Montenegro is composed of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), CDS – People’s Party (CDS–PP), and People’s Monarchist Party (PPM). AD’s policy proposals promised less taxes for companies, the middle class and young people, as well as better public services.
PS is a social-democratic party and was founded in 1973. It has been the main party in Parliament for the last eight years. The PS campaign, led by Pedro Nuno Santos, focused on budget deficit reduction, increasing minimum wage, fighting discrimination and improving the National Health Service. The Portuguese economy saw a 2.3% growth in GDP in 2023 under the PS government. However, the various corruption scandals associated with socialist members have fuelled voter disenchantment.
Chega, the third largest party, was founded in 2019 by a former member of PSD, André Ventura. Ventura established Chega (meaning “Enough”) as an anti-establishment, nationalist party which has been criticised for its racist, anti-LGBTQI+, anti-immigrant rhetoric. Chega’s slogan is “God, country, family and work” which is inspired by the slogan of Portugal’s 20th century dictator, Salazar.
Chega has allied itself with Europe’s hard-right, anti-immigration parties, such as Marine le Pen’s Rassemblement National in France or Germany’s AfD. It is a member of the Identity and Democracy political group in the European Parliament. Support for Chega has grown considerably since its formation five years ago. The party scored 1.3% of votes in 2019’s election and 7.3% in 2022, when it finished third. The party’s 2024 campaign proposed some controversial proposals, including the introduction of life prison sentences, as well as “quotas” for “non-Schengen workers”.
What were the campaign issues?
Corruption was a major campaign issue and became a reason that many voters were drawn to Chega’s anti-corruption campaign. The country’s housing crisis was also key for voters. In places such as Lisbon, there has been considerable pressure posed by tourists and investors, creating dramatic property bubbles. The price of homes in Portugal has more than doubled over the last eight years. In combination, low wages are a major concern. The minimum wage is €820 a month in Portugal, one of the lowest in Western Europe.
Interestingly, hot-button topics, such as climate change and migration, that have encouraged the growth of populist parties in other EU Member States played a more minor role for voters during the election campaign.
What were the results?
The results of Sunday’s elections were unprecedented in Portugal’s democratic history. The centre-left PS have gained the highest percentage of the vote, with 28.66% and will have 77 members in Parliament. However, this represents a considerable decrease in support for PS since 2022 when they won 41.68% of the vote and 117 seats. The centre-right AD came second by a decimal point, winning 28.63% of the vote. AD will have one less member in parliament than PS, with 76 in total.
Chega quadrupled its number of members in Parliament from 12 to 48, winning 18.06% of the vote. Chega’s success has been credited to support from former Socialist voters, former centre-right voters and young first-time voters.
There are still two electoral circles to be counted involving those eligible to vote overseas in other European countries, as well as further afield. This will likely take a couple of weeks which will delay the allocation of the outstanding four parliamentary seats.
Voter turnout was almost 13.9% higher than the 2022 parliamentary election. It is also the first time since the Estado Novo dictatorship ended 50 years ago that a far-right party will play a role in Portugal’s political future.
Right turn
Neither of the two main parties have secured the 116 seats required to guarantee majority rule. Santos, the leader of the socialist PS made a concession speech as the votes were still being counted on Sunday 10 March, stating that that the combined size of the centre-right and far-right made a left-wing government impossible.
This positions Chega as a potential kingmaker. During his campaign, AD leader, Luis Montenegro, repeatedly stated that his party would not work with Chega because of the “often xenophobic, racist, populist and excessively demagogic” rhetoric of Ventura. He reiterated in his victory speech that his coalition party would not strike any deals with Chega to govern but would seek “dialogue and understanding between parties and leaders”. Some observers have interpreted this as a sign of potential future compromises. Chega leader, Ventura, has called for an AD-Chega coalition.
Santos, the leader of the Socialists (PS), said that although his party would not prevent Montenegro from becoming Prime Minister, it would also not help him to pass legislation. This could lead to instability in Parliament and leave AD with no choice but to veer more towards the right and seek Chega’s support.
Next steps
Currently, as of 14 March 2024, a government has yet to be formed. Conservative President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa will consult the top parties between 12 and 20 March and is expected to invite the leader of AD, Luis Montenegro, to form a minority government. It is likely that Parliament will return at the end of March or the beginning of April.
Results: Assembly of the Republic
| Political Parties | Elected deputies | Percentage of votes |
| Socialist’s Paty (PS) | 77 | 28,66 % |
| Democratic Alliance (AD) | 76 | 28,63 %, |
| Chega (CH) | 4 | 18.06% |
| Liberal Initiative (IL) | 8 | 5.08% |
| Left Bloc (B.E.) | 5 | 4.46% |
| Voter turnout | 66.23 % |
| Number of voters | 6,140,269 |
| Number of voters who received a ballot | 9,271,479 |
Source: Secretary General Ministry of Internal Administration (SGMAI)
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