Finnish Presidential Election: February 2024

On Sunday 11 February 2024, Finnish voters headed to the polls to elect a new President. As no candidate received 50% of the vote in the first round, Sunday’s election represented a second-round run-off. This high-stakes election was the first since the country’s accession to NATO in April 2023. Former Prime Minister, Alexander Stubb, of the National Coalition Party (NCP), will become the 13^th President of Finland, winning 51.6% of the votes. His opponent, Finland’s former Foreign Minister, Pekka Haavisto, won a close 48.4%. This Just the Facts looks at the role and responsibilities of Finland’s President, the candidates’ campaigns, and the key issues that dominated the election.

A Brief History of Finland

In Finnish, Finland is “Suomi,” a word which is said to come from the Finnish word for swampland, “suomaa” – among other theories.

From 1809 to 1917, Finland was a Grand Duchy under the Russian Empire. Before then, it was under Swedish rule for almost seven centuries. In the wake of the October 1917 Russian Revolution, Finland’s Parliament adopted a declaration of independence. From January until May 1918, during the First World War, the newly independent state experienced civil war between the socialist Reds, supported by Bolshevist Russia, and the non-socialist Whites, supported by the German Empire. Following defeat by the Soviet Union in the Second World War, Finland was subject to strong influence from Moscow. The state pursued a policy of friendly neutrality towards Moscow until the end of the Cold War in 1991. From 1992 onwards, Finland turned increasingly towards the West, joining the European Union in 1995.

What are the responsibilities of Finland’s President?

Finland’s President is the head of state and commander-in-chief of the Finnish Defence Forces. The President leads foreign and security policy, in cooperation with the government, and represents the country at NATO’s meetings. The President also appoints and discharges government ministers, certain high-ranking civil servants, and Supreme Court judges. At the Prime Minister’s request, the President also has the power to order early parliamentary elections.

How is the Finnish President elected?

Finland’s incumbent President, the centre-right and later independent candidate, Sauli Niinistö, served two six-year terms – the maximum permitted since 1994.

Originally, the Finnish President was selected from an electoral college system. However, since 1994, the President has been directly elected by universal suffrage. Candidates are nominated either by a registered political party or by a constituency association established by 20,000 eligible voters. To be President, you must be a native-born Finnish citizen.

Who were the 2024 candidates?

After the first round of voting in January 2024, no candidate received more than 50% of the vote, resulting in a runoff. In the first round, Jussi Halla-aho the former leader of the far-right Finns Party came third, with 19% of the votes. This represented a significant increase in support since the 2018 presidential election, where the Finns Party candidate, Laura Huhtasaari, won just under 7%. The Eurosceptic, anti-immigration Finns Party are currently the second largest party in Finland’s four-party coalition government. The European Commissioner and former finance minister, Jutta Urpilainen, also ran in the presidential race on behalf of the Finnish Social Democratic Party (SDP), placing sixth place in the first round, with 4.3%.

However, it was Alexander Stubb, of the centre-right National Coalition Party (NCP) and Pekka Haavisto, former leader of the Green League, who went head-to-head in a runoff election. Both Stubb and Haavisto have broad domestic and international experience, with both having served as Foreign Minister, among other cabinet portfolios.

Alexander Stubb was Prime Minister of Finland from 2014 to 2015. He is a former MEP (2004-2008) and also campaigned in 2018 to be the European Peoples Party’s (EPP) Spitzenkandidat, or leading candidate, during the last European Elections in 2019. He served as Finnish Foreign Minister from 2008 to 2011 and was a Vice-President of the European Investment Bank from 2017 to 2020. For the last four years (since 2020), he has served as director of the European University Institute’s School of Transnational Governance in Florence, Italy. Stubb stated in an interview in January 2024 that he had not planned to return to national politics but that Putin’s attack on “Ukraine changed it.”

Pekka Haavisto ran as an independent candidate through a constituency association. However, he is an environmentalist and member of the Finnish Greens, serving as leader of the party from 2018 to 2019. This election marks the third consecutive time that Haavisto has campaigned in the presidential elections, after previous campaigns during the 2012 and 2018 elections. Haavisto has held a variety of posts with the United Nations, chairing the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) Task Forces on environmental impacts of war in the Balkans, Afghanistan, Iraq, Liberia, occupied Palestinian territory and Sudan. In 1995, he became Europe’s first-ever Green cabinet minister. Haavisto has served as Finnish Foreign Minister since 2019 and was one of the main negotiators involved in Finland’s entry to NATO in 2023.

It is NCP’s Stubb who will become the 13^th President of Finland, winning 51.6% of the votes. It was the closest second round in the history of presidential elections in Finland, with Haavisto winning 48.4% of the votes. Voter turnout was high for the second round with 70.7% of eligible voters voting. Advance voting for the second round set a new record for a national election at 46%.

It is important to note that around twice as many votes were rejected in the second round of the presidential election, compared to the first round. Central Finland’s electoral district secretary said that the increase in protest votes mainly indicates that the two candidates were not satisfactory to all voters.

Campaign issues

Bringing the personal to the presidential

In the final days of campaigning, the two candidates’ personal lives were brought into focus by Finnish media.

Haavisto took a creative campaign approach, organising club nights which attracted Finnish students, even playing DJ sets himself under the name “DJ Pexi.” Haavisto was bidding to be Finland’s first Green and openly gay president. He strongly advocated for green policies during his campaign. However, it was his sexuality that became an issue of public interest in the second round of the election. Haavisto also noted that this was not the case during his previous presidential campaigns (for example, in 2012). In a poll conducted by the University of Helsinki in January 2024, one third of respondents said that they would not vote for Haavisto “because of his partner.” The spouses of the other candidates were not cited as an issue by the survey respondents, who were all in heterosexual relationships.

During his campaign, Stubb was considered as a confident political player who “likes the limelight.” Stubb is an avid social media user, managing his own account. His historic “brusqueness” became a matter of discussion and criticism during his campaign. In 2011, in the role of Finnish minister for European affairs, he had to apologise for swearing at a Nordic Council meeting.

Although Stubb has admitted to making mistakes in the past in regards to Russia, his historic foreign policy decisions did not escape attention during the campaign. As Prime Minister, and in previous ministerial positions, he actively promoted economic cooperation with Russia. In 2014, the same year as Russia’s annexation of Crimea, he criticised Finnish MPs who disagreed with a Russian-built nuclear reactor planned for Finland’s north-west coast, calling it “russophobia.”

A new NATO state

Finland joined NATO in April 2023, a decision which was approved by the Finnish parliament with an overwhelming majority in March 2023.

Russia’s war in Ukraine played a central role during the election campaign. Given its historic relationship with Russia, as well as its 830-mile-long geographical border, NATO membership became a key debate in Finland following the invasion in 2022. Public support for Finland joining NATO jumped from one third of Finns in 2018 to almost 80% in 2022. Relations between Russia and Finland deteriorated following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Finland’s subsequent accession to NATO. In November 2023, Finland closed all official border crossings with Russia, accusing the Kremlin of encouraging an influx of migrants at its borders. By the end of November 2023, asylum seekers, without formal visas or documentation, had entered the country through its borders with Russia. The Kremlin denied all accusations, citing Finland’s stance as being “anti-Russian.”

Both Stubb and Haavisto advocated for strong stances on Russia during their campaigns. When asked about Finland’s foreign policy during his campaign, Stubb stated that, politically, there would be “no relations with the president of Russia or with the Russian political leadership” until there was an end to the war in Ukraine. Both Stubb and Haavisto were considered pro-EU, pro-Ukraine, “internationalist” candidates.

However, observers noted that Stubb had a slightly more hardline approach towards Russia than Haavisto. Stubb also had a “slightly more positive line” towards NATO integration, particularly regarding whether Finland would allow the transportation of NATO nuclear weapons through its territory. Stubb also appeared more open than Haavisto to allowing a  Finnish  military presence on  the country’s strategically important Baltic Sea archipelago of Åland, which would reverse a policy in place since 1856.  However, he has stated that he does not support storing nuclear weapons in Finland.

A “unifying” President

President-elect, Stubb, will take office on Friday 1 March 2024, when he will make a solemn declaration before the Finnish Parliament. Stubb must also renounce his party membership, as is customary for a new President. Stubb’s campaign slogan was “The Unifying Factor.” It remains to be seen whether Stubb can unify Finland during a time when his party (NCP) is running a coalition with the far-right Finns Party, and hundreds of thousands of workers are taking part in nation-wide union strikes.

Finnish voters have decided that he’s the person for the job. Watch this space!

Election Results

Eligible voters living in Finland

Source: Yle: national public broadcaster of Finland

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